MINHA MESTRIA: AGORA O ALERTA DO NOOA PARA AS COSTAS DO RIO DE JANEIRO E ESPÍRITO SANTO

MINHA MESTRIA: AGORA O ALERTA DO NOOA PARA AS COSTAS DO RIO DE JANEIRO E ESPÍRITO SANTO

sábado, 12 de março de 2011

Nota deste blog: Estou compartilhando estas informaçoes com meus leitores do blog Amigo MM que eu considero um blog muito sério e com excelentes postagens, como alerta e não para espalhar a energia de medo, diz um ditado que" é melhor prevenir do que remediar", portanto ajudem a divulgar....grata....JO

Anthonio: Eu, um cidadão qualquer, raciocino o óbvio:
"Se há boletins de alertas, não só do SOMAR METEOROLOGIA, mas também do NOOA que é a maior referência mundial no assunto, IMEDIATAMENTE os governos municipais, estaduais e federal junto à imprensa brasileira, deveriam anunciar para que os cidadãos destas regiões tivessem os devidos cuidados."
Não falo de evacuação, mas sim um alerta para embarcações, banhistas e todos que estão próximos ao mar.
Da mesma maneira ocorreu com a região serrana (CLIQUE AQUI para ver a notificação enviada a Teresópolis) e as autoridades não deram a devida atenção às notificações de alerta que receberam com ANTECEDÊNCIA, e todos sabemos no que deu.

Segue abaixo o alerta do NOOA:

SOUTH AMERICA FORECAST DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS

NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD

1244 PM EST FRI MAR 11 2011

GFS DATA AT FTPPRD.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PUB/DATA/NCCF/COM/GFS/PROD/

SPECIAL STATEMENT...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW RISK OF WARM CORE

CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE COAST OF RIO DE JANEIRO/ESPIRITO SANTO

THROUGH SUNDAY-MONDAY. THE NAVY HYDROGRAPHIC CENTER-BRAZILIAN

NAVY (SMM)...IN COORDINATION WITH THE NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF

METEOROLOGY (INMET)...WILL ISSUE THE NECESSARY ADVISORIES. THIS

SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS

ACROSS MINAS GERAIS-RIO DE JANEIRO AND ESPIRITO SANTO.

Aviso especial... os modelos da NOAA continuam mostrar risco de ciclogênese com centro aquecido ao longo da costa do Rio de Janeiro/Espírito Santo de domingo à segunda. O Centro Hidrográfico Naval da Marinha Brasileira (SMM).... em coordenação com o Instituto de Meteorologia (INMET)... irão divulgar os avisos necessários. Este sistema tem o potencial de produzir quantidades excessivas de preciptação pluviométrico ao longo dos estados do Rio de Janeiro, Minas Gerais e Espírito Santo.

MODEL COMPARISON (VALID FROM 00UTC MAR 11): THE GLOBAL MODELS

CONTINUE TO SHOW FAVORABLE UPPER ENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW

DAYS...TO FAVOR WARM CORE CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE COAST OF ESPIRITO

SANTO. THE GFS REMAINS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS DEVELOPMENT/

EVOLUTION...WHILE THE UKMET PROJECTS A SLOWER PACE OF

INTENSIFICATION. THE ECMWF IS SLOWLY TRENDING TOWARDS A STRONGER

SYSTEM...BUT NOT AS DEEP/INTENSE AS THE GFS PROJECTS AND SOMEWHAT

CLOSER TO THE UKMET. ONCE IT DEVELOPS...THERE IS DISAGREEMENT

AMONG THE MODELS ON HOW FAST IT IS GOING TO PULL TO THE

SOUTHEAST...WITH EUROPEAN MODELS MOVING AT A SLOWER PACE THAN THE

GFS. THIS IS ADDING UNCERTAINTY TO THE FORECAST BEYOND 60/72

HRS...AND HEAVY RAINS MIGHT LAST LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY

ESTIMATED.

OVER THE SOUTH PACIFIC...A MID/UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE RIDGE

EXTENDS SOUTH ALONG 105W TO 70S. THROUGH 60-72 HRS IT WILL

RELOCATE TO THE SOUTHERN CONE/DRAKE PASSAGE-ANTARCTIC PENINSULA.

BY 108-132 HRS IT IS TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN TO THE NORTH OF

50S...WHILE A SHORT WAVE RIDGE PERSISTS ON THE SOUTHERN STREAM

FLOW. MEANWHILE...THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE IS FEEDING COLD/POLAR

ENERGY INTO THE BACKSIDE OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE ANTARCTIC

PENINSULA-SOUTHERN CONE. THROUGH 60-72 HRS THE TROUGH IS FORECAST

TO SLOWLY PULL EAST INTO THE WEDDELL SEA-WESTERN ATLANTIC. IT IS

TO THEN SPLIT THROUGH 84-96 HRS...SHEARING A TROUGH ON THE

NORTHERN STREAM THAT EVOLVES INTO A CLOSED LOW BETWEEN THE

MALVINAS/FALKLAND AND THE SOUTH GEORGIA ISLANDS. AT LOW LEVELS IT

SUSTAINS A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE ANTARCTIC PENINSULA-SOUTHERN

CONE...WITH A POLAR FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC-LA PAMPA

IN ARGENTINA-CENTRAL CHILE. THROUGH 48 HRS...AS A POLAR RIDGE

BUILDS ACROSS LA PAMPA IN ARGENTINA...THE FRONT WILL ACCELERATE

ACROSS RIO DE LA PLATA/URUGUAY-CORDOBA/MENDOZA IN ARGENTINA.

UNDER INFLUENCE OF A LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET (PAMPERO)...A

PREFRONTAL SQUALL LINE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...AND IT IS

TO PUSH ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO NORTHWEST PROVINCES OF ARGENTINA.

BY 72-84 HRS THE FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHERN STATES OF

BRASIL-PARAGUAY...TO CONTINUE FARTHER NORTH TO SAO PAULO-MATO

GROSSO DO SUL IN BRASIL BY 108-120 HRS. ACROSS CENTRAL

ARGENTINA...UNDER FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS...THERE IS MODERATE RISK

OF SEVERE CONVECTION THROUGH THIS EVENING. A SLIGHT RISK OF

SEVERE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ON DAY 02 AS THE SQUALL LINE

AFFECTS NORTHWEST ARGENTINA. RAINFALL MAXIMA ON DAY 01 WILL PEAK

AT 25-50MM/DAY. ON DAY 02...ACTIVITY WILL SPLIT...WITH MAXIMA OF

25-50MM/DAY ACROSS NORTHWEST ARGENTINA AND 20-45MM/DAY ACROSS RIO

DE LA PLATA BASIN/URUGUAY. AS THE FRONT ENTERS SOUTHERN BRASIL

THIS WILL DECREASE TO 05-10MM/DAY. FURTHERMORE...THE BUILDING

POLAR RIDGE TO THE SOUTH WILL SUSTAIN A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET

ACROSS CHACO ARGENTINO TO EASTERN BOLIVIA. THIS IS FORECAST TO

TRIGGER A SQUALL LINE AND MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL

AMOUNTS...WITH MAXIMA OF 25-50MM. HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE QUITE LIKELY

DUE TO TOPOGRAPHICAL FORCING.

THE MODELS THEN AGREE ON A LONG WAVE TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS THE

EASTERN PACIFIC...TO MOVE ALONG 80W/85W BY 72-84 HRS. AS IT

CLASHES WITH BLOCKING RIDGE TO THE EAST...THE TROUGH WILL

SPLIT...WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ON THE NORTHERN STREAM TO

MEANDER OFF THE CENTRAL COAST OF CHILE. MODELS THEN SHOW THIS

TROUGH SPILLING ACROSS THE ANDES TO CENTRAL/NORTHERN ARGENTINA

LATER IN THE CYCLE...WHERE IT WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED CONVECTION

WITH MAXIMA OF 25-50MM/DAY.

NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA WILL REMAIN UNDER INFLUENCE OF THE

SUBTROPICAL AND SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGES. AT 200 HPA...THE

SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BOUND BETWEEN 20S-05S...AS IT IS TO CENTER

ON HIGHS THAT MEANDER BETWEEN BOLIVIA AND BRASIL. THE

SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE IS TO EXTEND BETWEEN 05S-20N...WITH MEAN AXIS

WEST ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC/NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA ALONG

05N/07N. A BROAD AREA OF DIVERGENCE ALOFT SEPARATES THESE

RIDGES...FAVORING ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE CONTINENT

TO THE NORTH OF 07S. CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTS...

EXPECTING FOCUS OF THE ACTIVITY TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS PARA TO THE

NORTHEAST STATES OF BRASIL WHILE EXPANDING NORTH ACROSS THE

GUIANAS. DAILY MAXIMA OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS IS FORECAST TO

PEAK AT 35-70MM.

UNDER INFLUENCE OF THE POLAR TROUGH ENTERING THE SOUTH ATLANTIC

EARLY THIS CYCLE...THE SOUTH ATLANTIC HIGH/RIDGE IS FORECAST TO

WEAKEN. THROUGH 36-48 HRS MODELS SHOW THE RIDGE PATTERN WEAKENING

WHILE SLOWLY PULLING TO THE EAST-SOUTH EAST. AS THE RIDGE

WEAKENS...MODELS THEN FORECAST A LOW/TROUGH ALONG THE COAST OF

BRASIL TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...WITH A LOW EAST OF

VITORIA/RIO DE JANEIRO TO ANCHOR THIS AXIS. AS IT MEANDERS OVER

WARM WATERS OFF THE COAST OF BRASIL...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW

POSSIBILITY OF THIS SYSTEM EVOLVING INTO A WARM CORE CYCLONE.

THROUGH 72-84 HRS THE SYSTEM IS TO DEEPEN/INTENSIFY...TO SUSTAIN

STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES OF

BRASIL. THIS WILL LEAD TO TOPOGRAPHICALLY INDUCED CONVECTION

ACROSS RIO DE JANEIRO-ESPIRITO SANTO AND EASTERN MINAS GERAIS.

THROUGH 36 HRS THE DAILY MAXIMA WILL INCREASE TO 50-75MM/DAY...

AND BY 48-96 HRS THIS COULD INCREASE TO 150-250MM/DAY AS THE

CYCLONE BECOMES MORE ACTIVE/BETTER ORGANIZED. LATER ON DAY 04

EXPECT ACTIVITY TO DECREASE TO 30-60MM/DAY WHILE SYSTEM SLOWLY

PULLS TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST.

Sob a influência de uma área alongada de baixa pressão atmosférica polar entrando no Atlântico Sul precocemente neste ciclo,.... a área de alta pressão do Atlântico Sul deverá enfraquecer. Os modelos das próximas 36-48 hs mostram o enfraquecimento do padrão de alta pressão simultaneamente com uma diminuição do deslocamento leste-sudeste. À medida em que a área de alta enfraquecer, os modelos prevêem então uma faixa de baixa pressão ficando mais bem organizada ao longo da costa do Brasil... os modelos continuam a mostrar a possibilidade do sistema se desenvolver em um ciclone com centro aquecido. Nas próximas 72-84 hs, o sistema irá se intensificar, sustentando fortes ventos na camada-limite (camada imaginária onde o regime de escoamento dos ventos passa de laminar para turbulento) nos estados do sudeste do Brasil. Isso levará à convecção induzida topograficamente ao longo do Rio de Janeiro - Espírito Santo e Leste de Minas Gerais. Durante 36 horas a máxima diária irá aumentar para 50-75 mm de precipitação e entre 48-96 hr esta máxima pode subir para 150-250 mm/d de preciptação à medida em que o ciclone se tornar mais ativo e bem organizado. Mais adiante no 4o. dia espera-se que a atividade diminua para 30-60 mm/d enquanto o sistema vagarosamente se move para leste-sudeste.

Enviado por Martius de Oliveira

http://minhamestria.blogspot.com